p 2
One Harvard study predicts that if current demographic trends
continue, the American Jewish community is likely to number less
than 1 million and conceivably as few as 10,000 by the time the
United States celebrates its tricentennial in 2076.
{Elihu Bergman, "The American Jewish Population Erosion," Midstream,
October 1977, pp. 9-19}
p. 23
By almost any measure, the size of the American Jewish community is in
sharp decline while other segments of the U.S. population are growing.
In 1937, Jews made up nearly 4 percent of the U.S. population; today
that figure has shrunk to just over 2 percent. Within the Jewish
community, differential birth and assimilation rates suggest that what
remains of the Jewish community by the middle of the twenty-first
century will consist primarily of ultra-Orthodox Jews, who have
relatively little involvement in the general community. The
significant Jewish contribution to the arts, sciences, education,
politics, business, philanthropy, the media, medicine, law, and other
important facets of life may well end.
p. 24-25
If trends continue apace, American Jewry --- indeed, Diaspora Jewry
--- may virtually vanish by the third quarter of the twenty-first
century. In its stead, two categories of Jewry will remain. First,
the remnant of the currently vibrant and largely secular Jewish
community will subsist as an attenuated collection of "partial Jews,"
"former Jews," "assimilated Jews," "people of Jewish background," and
"Christian Jews."
...
The second type of Jew that will remain a half century from now, and
probably dominate the Jewish community in every way, is the
"fundamentalist Jew," the "ultra-Orthodox right-wing Jew," the
"Hasidic Jew," the "ba'al t'shuvah" (born-again Jew).
...
The major factors fueling these trends are intermarriage, assimilation,
and wildly disparate birthrates. The ultra-Orthodox (who constitute
approximately one-fourth of the overall Orthodox population) average
more than four children per couple. In very traditional neighborhoods,
such as Borough Park in Brooklyn, families average close to six
children. Nonobservant Jews, however, average between 1.5 and 1.6
children per couple, below the 2.1 "replacement level."
p. 26
... more Jews now marry non-Jews than fellow Jews. The figure over the
past several years has been estimated at between 53 percent and 58
percent (though it may be somewhat less).