Алан Дершовиц, Вымирающий американский еврей

Alan M. Dershowitz, The Vanishing American Jew, Little, Brown and Company, Boston, New York, Toronto, London, 1997.

p 2
One Harvard study predicts that if current demographic trends continue, the American Jewish community is likely to number less than 1 million and conceivably as few as 10,000 by the time the United States celebrates its tricentennial in 2076. {Elihu Bergman, "The American Jewish Population Erosion," Midstream, October 1977, pp. 9-19}

p. 23
By almost any measure, the size of the American Jewish community is in sharp decline while other segments of the U.S. population are growing. In 1937, Jews made up nearly 4 percent of the U.S. population; today that figure has shrunk to just over 2 percent. Within the Jewish community, differential birth and assimilation rates suggest that what remains of the Jewish community by the middle of the twenty-first century will consist primarily of ultra-Orthodox Jews, who have relatively little involvement in the general community. The significant Jewish contribution to the arts, sciences, education, politics, business, philanthropy, the media, medicine, law, and other important facets of life may well end.

p. 24-25
If trends continue apace, American Jewry --- indeed, Diaspora Jewry --- may virtually vanish by the third quarter of the twenty-first century. In its stead, two categories of Jewry will remain. First, the remnant of the currently vibrant and largely secular Jewish community will subsist as an attenuated collection of "partial Jews," "former Jews," "assimilated Jews," "people of Jewish background," and "Christian Jews."
The second type of Jew that will remain a half century from now, and probably dominate the Jewish community in every way, is the "fundamentalist Jew," the "ultra-Orthodox right-wing Jew," the "Hasidic Jew," the "ba'al t'shuvah" (born-again Jew).
The major factors fueling these trends are intermarriage, assimilation, and wildly disparate birthrates. The ultra-Orthodox (who constitute approximately one-fourth of the overall Orthodox population) average more than four children per couple. In very traditional neighborhoods, such as Borough Park in Brooklyn, families average close to six children. Nonobservant Jews, however, average between 1.5 and 1.6 children per couple, below the 2.1 "replacement level."

p. 26
... more Jews now marry non-Jews than fellow Jews. The figure over the past several years has been estimated at between 53 percent and 58 percent (though it may be somewhat less).